Oscar Predictions 2014

By Movie Geeks | February 28, 2014

Contributed by Michelle McCue, Melissa Thompson and Gary Salem

Funny how fast an Oscar season goes by… only last year ARGO was being given the Academy Award for Best Picture. The big night is almost here and nothing about this year’s Academy Awards is a sure bet. With so much time between the nominations in January, the various guild awards and the Olympics thrown in, the 6,028 AMPAS voters have had a long time to mull things, and their votes, over.

The winner’s acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes, the Screen Actor Guild Awards (SAG) and the British Academy Awards (BAFTA) have never been more important as they have during this past month and a half. Voting for the Oscars closed on Tuesday, February 25, at 5 p.m.

Even the avid pundits are in a muddle and would give their eye teeth to see the final tallies. Will hopefuls Leto, Blanchett, N’yongo and McConaughey win? Will it be GRAVITY or 12 YEARS A SLAVE? Could one of the others Best Picture nominees slink in at the last minute and steal the whole scene?

Her’s our thoughts on who the eventual winners will be in the 24 categories for the 86th Academy Awards.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Christian Bale in “American Hustle”
• Bruce Dern in “Nebraska”
• Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
• Chiwetel Ejiofor in “12 Years a Slave”
• Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club” (Screen Actor Guild winner)

Have the voters tired of McConaughey’s “All right, alright, alright” or does Hollywood want to finally award the actor for his turn as Ron Woodroof in Jean-Marc Vallée’s fact-based drama?

Good night nurse, what a category. Ejiofor won the BAFTA and DiCaprio seems to be coming from behind in this oh-so-close race. The biggest spoiler of the night may be Bruce Dern who previously won Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival. Academy voters have a track history of giving the Oscar to the seasoned veteran in the room, so be on the lookout for a Dern win.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Barkhad Abdi in “Captain Phillips”
• Bradley Cooper in “American Hustle”
• Michael Fassbender in “12 Years a Slave”
• Jonah Hill in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
• Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club” (SAG winner)

Leto gives a remarkable performance and is probably our winner in this category. While Leto wasn’t a BAFTA nominee, Abdi won big at the British Academy Awards and made the most gracious of speeches. Add to the fact that it’s in the supporting groups where the biggest upsets lie.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Amy Adams in “American Hustle”
• Cate Blanchett in “Blue Jasmine” (SAG winner)
• Sandra Bullock in “Gravity”
• Judi Dench in “Philomena”
• Meryl Streep in “August: Osage County”

We’ll concede the win for Blanchett, but oh how we would have loved to have seen Dench up at the podium.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Sally Hawkins in “Blue Jasmine”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “American Hustle”
• Lupita Nyong’o in “12 Years a Slave” (SAG winner)
• Julia Roberts in “August: Osage County”
• June Squibb in “Nebraska”

If a voting split happens, it will be here. Presumed winner, the lovely Lupita Nyong’o, has been raking up the trophies and given such heartfelt acceptance speeches, while Jennifer Lawrence surprised everyone with her win at the BAFTAs (a substantial voting block within AMPAS). However, don’t count out Squibb as the surprise winner.

Best animated feature film of the year

• “The Croods” Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco and Kristine Belson
• “Despicable Me 2” Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin and Chris Meledandri
• “Ernest & Celestine” Benjamin Renner and Didier Brunner
• “Frozen” Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee and Peter Del Vecho
• “The Wind Rises” Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki

This is the first nomination and probable Oscar trophy for both Jennifer Lee and Peter Del Vecho. The upset could come with a win for Miyazaki’s THE WIND RISES.

Achievement in cinematography

• “The Grandmaster” Philippe Le Sourd
• “Gravity” Emmanuel Lubezki
• “Inside Llewyn Davis” Bruno Delbonnel
• “Nebraska” Phedon Papamichael
• “Prisoners” Roger A. Deakins

Deakins is a ten-time Academy Award nominee and will most likely have to sit this one out yet again. Ca’mon AMPAS voters, what’s is going to take until you finally give this guy an Oscar?

Papamichael’s Black and White cinematography in NEBRASKA was nothing less than striking, but even with the all CGI thrown in, Lubezki took our breath away with his remarkable scenes of outer space.

Achievement in costume design

• “American Hustle” Michael Wilkinson
• “The Grandmaster” William Chang Suk Ping
• “The Great Gatsby” Catherine Martin
• “The Invisible Woman” Michael O’Connor
• “12 Years a Slave” Patricia Norris

GATSBY will take home the Oscar on this one. With her Production Design and Costume Design nominations, Catherine Martin becomes only the second person to be nominated in those two categories for the same film on more than one occasion. She’ll have two more statuettes to go along with the ones she already has for MOULIN ROUGE.

Achievement in directing

• “American Hustle” David O. Russell
• “Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón (Directors Guild winner)
• “Nebraska” Alexander Payne
• “12 Years a Slave” Steve McQueen
• “The Wolf of Wall Street” Martin Scorsese

This is a year where BP and Directing will match up. If you subscribe to the notion that a movie doesn’t direct itself to the winner’s circle, then you have to go with DGA winner Cuaron. But in a year with so many variables, a win for McQueen wouldn’t be a total shock.

Best documentary feature

• “The Act of Killing” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
• “Cutie and the Boxer” Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher
• “Dirty Wars” Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill
• “The Square” Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer
• “20 Feet from Stardom” Nominees to be determined

THE ACT OF KILLING is undeniably one of the best films of 2013, but we could see the irresistible 20 FEET FROM STARDOM taking the Oscar.

Best documentary short subject

• “CaveDigger” Jeffrey Karoff
• “Facing Fear” Jason Cohen
• “Karama Has No Walls” Sara Ishaq
• “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life” Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed
• “Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall” Edgar Barens

Holocaust themed subject matter trumps all, so we’re going with THE LADY IN NUMBER 6. Herz Sommer, featured in the documentary was an accomplished music teacher who survived the Holocaust at Theresienstadt concentration camp by playing the piano for the Nazis. Plus, it’s hard not to love this movie so filled with hope and laughter!

Living to the age of 110, Sommer passed away in London on Sunday.

Achievement in film editing

• “American Hustle” Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
• “Captain Phillips” Christopher Rouse (American Cinema Editing – Eddie Award winner)
• “Dallas Buyers Club” John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
• “Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
• “12 Years a Slave” Joe Walker

Usually editing and picture go hand-in-hand, but the ACE awards recently went to CAPTAIN PHILLIPS for Drama and AMERICAN HUSTLE for Comedy. If AMPAS voters go down the line and have their hearts set on GRAVITY, then the front runner has it in the bag. However, if 12 YEARS A SLAVE is announced, you can almost bet on it to win Best Picture. Almost.

Best foreign language film of the year

• “The Broken Circle Breakdown” Belgium
• “The Great Beauty” Italy
• “The Hunt” Denmark
• “The Missing Picture” Cambodia
• “Omar” Palestine

It’s a shame that Saudi Arabia’s WADJDA and Iran’s THE PAST are missing. THE GREAT BEAUTY will win, making it the 28th Academy Award nomination (including ten wins) for Italy.

THE HUNT will come in a close second, but watch out for Belgium’s THE BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN.

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling

• “Dallas Buyers Club” Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews
• “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” Stephen Prouty
• “The Lone Ranger” Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

We’re betting on DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, but will the Academy give a ‘JACKASS’ movie and first time nominee Prouty the win?

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

• “The Book Thief” John Williams
• “Gravity” Steven Price
• “Her” William Butler and Owen Pallett
• “Philomena” Alexandre Desplat
• “Saving Mr. Banks” Thomas Newman

Composer Steven Price will take home his first Oscar for his magnificent, thundering score on GRAVITY. A close runner-up is Alexandre Desplat’s beautiful PHILOMENA.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

• “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”
  Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams
• “Let It Go” from “Frozen”
  Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
• “The Moon Song” from “Her”
  Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
• “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
  Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson

Even with the snappy “Happy” and Golden Globe winner “Ordinary Love,” FROZEN’s “Let It Go” wins.

Best motion picture of the year

• “American Hustle” Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
• “Captain Phillips” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti and Michael De Luca, Producers
• “Dallas Buyers Club” Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter, Producers
• “Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón and David Heyman, Producers
• “Her” Megan Ellison, Spike Jonze and Vincent Landay, Producers
• “Nebraska” Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa, Producers
• “Philomena” Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan and Tracey Seaward, Producers
• “12 Years a Slave” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Anthony Katagas, Producers
• “The Wolf of Wall Street” Nominees to be determined

This one wont be easy, so here goes. We usually look to the Producers Guild Awards to find the BP winner, but this year featured a historic tie for the PGA between GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE.

Director Steve McQueen’s drama won the BAFTA, but it’s so sad to sit through. Although another gold statue in the Pitt-Jolie household would be fantastic, as Brad is a producer on 12 YEARS A SLAVE.

Just to throw a monkey wrench in, AMERICAN HUSTLE won the Screen Actor Guild award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. It has as good a chance as the other two of winning. The actors branch is the biggest voting block of the Academy.

The ultimate spoiler would be if the presenter says, “And The Oscar Goes To…PHILOMENA.” With no precursor awards, an Oscar win for Stephen Frears’ feel good film of 2013 would bring the roof down at the Dolby Theatre.

Achievement in production design

• “American Hustle” Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler
• “Gravity” Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard
• “The Great Gatsby” Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn (Art Directors Guild winner)
• “Her” Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena
• “12 Years a Slave” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker

Upsets – The sets on AMERICAN HUSTLE were an uncanny visit to 70’s decor, HER and GRAVITY won ADG awards for Best Contemporary and Best Fantasy Feature respectively, but THE GREAT GATSBY is the kind of film AMPAS voters give the Oscar to.

Best animated short film

• “Feral” Daniel Sousa and Dan Golden
• “Get a Horse!” Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim
• “Mr. Hublot” Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares
• “Possessions” Shuhei Morita
• “Room on the Broom” Max Lang and Jan Lachauer

GET A HORSE! looks like a lock, but we have a soft spot and high hopes for ROOM ON THE BROOM.  It won the Animation category at the 2013 BAFTA Children’s Awards.

Best live action short film

• “Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)” Esteban Crespo
• “Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)” Xavier Legrand and Alexandre Gavras
• “Helium” Anders Walter and Kim Magnusson
• “Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)” Selma Vilhunen and Kirsikka Saari
• “The Voorman Problem” Mark Gill and Baldwin Li

JUST BEFORE LOSING EVERYTHING could be the surprise winner in this category, but we’re not betting against the heart-breaking HELIUM.

Achievement in sound editing

• “All Is Lost” Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
• “Captain Phillips” Oliver Tarney
• “Gravity” Glenn Freemantle
• “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Brent Burge
• “Lone Survivor” Wylie Stateman

Both CAPTAIN PHILLIPS and GRAVITY won the Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards, but if you’ve seen LONE SURVIVOR, you can’t deny it’s powerful impact on the film.

Achievement in sound mixing

• “Captain Phillips” Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
• “Gravity” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
• “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
• “Inside Llewyn Davis” Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
• “Lone Survivor” Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

Tough category to call. With the mixing of dialogue and music, this is where musicals are usually found. In any other year, we’d go with INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS. Recently, GRAVITY (live action) and FROZEN (animated motion picture) were the feature film winners at the 50th Cinema Audio Society Awards, but with LONE SURVIVOR, GRAVITY and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS all in the “mix,” the Oscar could easily go to any of the three movies. GRAVITY’s team get the gold.

Achievement in visual effects

• “Gravity” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould (Visual Effects Society winner)
• “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
• “Iron Man 3” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
• “The Lone Ranger” Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
• “Star Trek Into Darkness” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

No spoiler, no upset, no runner-up. This win is a done deal.

Adapted screenplay

• “Before Midnight” Written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
• “Captain Phillips” Screenplay by Billy Ray (Writer’s Guild winner)
• “Philomena” Screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
• “12 Years a Slave” Screenplay by John Ridley
• “The Wolf of Wall Street” Screenplay by Terence Winter

Wouldn’t upset us if the three scribes from BEFORE MIDNIGHT win. Pleasant surprise would be BAFTA winner PHILOMENA.

Original screenplay

• “American Hustle” Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
• “Blue Jasmine” Written by Woody Allen
• “Dallas Buyers Club” Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
• “Her” Written by Spike Jonze (Writer’s Guild winner)
• “Nebraska” Written by Bob Nelson

Another tough one. We don’t want to see HER go home empty handed, but AMERICAN HUSTLE did win the BAFTA. AMPAS voters could go with Eric Warren Singer’s and David O. Russell’s screenplay in the end.

Who would you like to see walk off with the Golden Guy? Leave your Oscar predix down below.