Box Office Battle: Bruno Vs. Scrat

There is little doubt out there that Sacha Baron Cohen’s gay, Austrian fashionista will top the box office charts this coming weekend.   The question is, how well will it do?   Will it top the numbers Cohen generated three years with ‘Borat,’ or will it fall short of the $26.4 million take that film opened at?

Easy money is on that it will be topping ‘Borat,’ which opened at the beginning of November against ‘The Santa Clause 3’ and ‘Flushed Away.’   ‘Bruno’ is sure to take in more than that, as Cohen’s name has just gotten larger in the wake of that film, and the hype machine for ‘Bruno’ has been running rampant since its announcement.

It should also be noted that ‘Borat’ pulled in those kinds of numbers on just 837 screens in 2006.   ‘Bruno’ wil be showing on over three times that many screens despite its brush with the NC-17 rating a few months back.   In fact, ‘Bruno’s 2755 theaters is more than ‘Borat’ saw in its widest release its third weekend out.

For the past two Summers, the R-rated comedy has been king.   ‘The Hangover’ proved that this Summer is just as box office-friendly when it comes to comedies for adults, and people who have seen ‘The Hangover’ two or even three times may turn to ‘Bruno’ for something new.

The little counterprogramming that is going up against ‘Bruno’ this weekend is Chris Columbus’ return to direction after the disappointing 2005 release of ‘Rent.’   ‘I Love You, Beth Cooper’ hasn’t been getting much buzz, and the collaboration between Columbus and Hayden Panettiere doesn’t just scream “box office.”   Don’t expect ‘Beth Cooper’s take to put much of a dent whatsoever into ‘Bruno’s earnings.   Don’t expect much from ‘Beth Cooper’ at all, in fact.   Panettiere’s transformation into a movie star looks likely to be put on hold, and Columbus is sure to look for a way to get back into the ‘Harry Potter’ game.

Not even teens who find the one theater in America where they won’t sell tickets to the hard R-rated ‘Bruno’ to them will be settling on ‘Beth Cooper.’   Chances are, in the unlikely event that happens, most of them will either go see ‘Transformers 2’ again, or they’ll buy tickets for something they’ve already seen (probably ‘Transformers 2,’ anyway) and sneak into ‘Bruno.’

The more likely candidate for the #2 spot this weekend is in ‘Ice Age 3,’ which is coming off a stellar opening weekend take of $41.6 million.   Don’t expect its numbers to drop all that much this weekend, either.   The first ‘Ice Age’ had a second weekend dropoff of 35%.   ‘Ice Age: The Meltdown’ had a second weekend dropoff fo just over 50%, but this wasn’t a Summer release.   Even if ‘Ice Age 3’s second weekend is right at 50%, that will still put that film firmly in the number three spot.   It is likely to push through to number two, though, as most of the other kids fare (‘Up,’ et al.) have scuttled out of theaters by now.

‘Public Enemies’ had a larger than expected opening in its first weekend out, and second weekend numbers are sure to be just fine, as well.   Outside the Landmark Theaters, there really isn’t anything out their for serious adults.   Don’t be looking for this to be Michael Mann’s largest outing in his career.   It’s probably not going to be hitting ‘Collateral’s $100+ million overall take, but it’s going to be close.

The critic-proof ‘Transformers 2’ is still chugging it   way towards being the worst received $400+ million film in history.   It had a 61% dropoff from its first weekend to its second, and look for a similar drop this weekend.

Here’s the way I see the weekend breaking down:

1. Bruno $37.6 million
2. Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $22.3 million
3. Transformers 2: Autobot Heaven Sucks Ass   $20.6 million
4. Public Enemies $14.2
5. The Proposal $9.2 million

Shoot us your own numbers in the comment section below!