Box Office Battle: Ferrell Vs. Hangover

Despite the ‘Battle of the Smithsonian’ and the return to horror by Mr. Sam Raimi, nothing could top the box-office take of PIXAR’s biggest opener in five years.   Not since 2004’s ‘The Incredibles’ has a PIXAR film opened at more than $65 million, and look for those numbers to hold pretty steady this coming weekend.   It’s rather interesting to note that the top three films this weekend are likely to be rated PG, PG-13, and R in that order.

‘Up’ is definitely going to be number one again.   Not even Will Ferrell in a Summer blockbuster can beat that.   Ferrell has had some pretty big openings in his lifetime, but nothing has topped $47 million (‘Talladega Nights’), and ‘Land of the Lost’ isn’t likely to do so, either.   Right around the low $30 million range is a good estimate for ‘Land of the Lost.’   If you are to compare the film to another in Ferrell’s filmography, the closest would have to be ‘Bewitched,’ which opened to just over $20 million in 2005.   ‘Land of the Lost’ will do better than that.   The fact that the trailers, despite the PG-13 rating, make it look more kid-friendly will help bump up its numbers a tad.

The real head-scratcher this weekend is ‘The Hangover,’ though.   This film has been hyped for months and months, and the marketing behind it has been ingenious.   Todd Phillips isn’t exactly an opener, though.   His biggest opening was ‘Starsky and Hutch,’ but even that made just under $30 million in its opening weekend.   That was with a PG-13 rating, to boot.   ‘The Hangover’ has a lot going against it.   It’s rated R.   It really has no star appeal.   The main thing it has going for it are the trailers, TV spots, and people who have seen it convincing others that not all of the funny parts are revealed in the previous two.   It will have a nice weekend take, but it’s not going anywhere near $30.

Look for ‘Night at the Museum’ to hold onto the number 4 spot, and ‘Drag Me to Hell’ will probably just edge out ‘Terminator Salvation’ and ‘Star Trek’ to make the top 5.

Speaking of which, ‘Star Trek’ topped the $200 million mark, the first film of 2009 to do so, and it couldn’t have happened to a better film.   It’s like the really nice and popular guy in high school who also ends up winning a college scholarship.   You just can’t help but fell proud of it.   ‘Terminator Salvation’ will more than likely hit the $100 million mark this weekend, but don’t look for it to have much stamina after that.   It looks to make back about 2/3 of its $200-million budget worldwide.   Not exactly a barn burner.   That new, planned trilogy may not be happening after all.

Here’s the way I see the weekend breaking down:

1. Up – $40.4 million
2. The Land of the Lost – $30.5 million
3. The Hangover – $25.6 million
4. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian – $16.7 million
5. Drag Me to Hell – $7.9 million

Shoot us your numbers in the comment section below!