Box Office Battle: Bullock vs. Black

The last time Sandra Bullock and Jack Black had starring vehicles come out on the same day was June 16th, 2006. Bullock had ‘The Lake House,’ co-starring Keanu Reeves, and that film came in fourth place at $13.6 million. Black’s ‘Nacho Libre,’ which also had the director of ‘Napolean Dynamite’ going for it, came in second place behind ‘Cars’ with $28 million in domestic ticket sales.

And here we are again. Bullock is giving us another romance film, this time a romantic comedy co-starring Ryan Reynolds, and Black is, once again, offering up a juvenile comedy that is sure to have Black falling off of and running into things.

It is shocking to look back and realize Bullock has never had a film open to $20 million or better. Her best opening weekend take was with 2007’s ‘Premonition’ which made $17. ‘The Proposal’ looks like pretty typical fare for Bullock’s crowd, and the only extra thing that might push it past that $20 million opening mark is Reynolds. Reynolds, on the other hand, has only had one starring film (‘Wolverine’ doesn’t count to his favor) go past a $20 million opening. That was 2005’s ‘The Amityville Horror,’ which opened to $23.5 million.

In the blue corner, Jack Black has had monster opening after monster opening going all the way back to 2001’s $22 million opener for ‘Shallow Hal.’ ‘Nacho Libre’ made $28 million in its opening weekend. ‘Shark Tale’ and ‘Kung Fu Panda’ can somewhat look to be in his favor. They opened to $47.6 million and $60.2 million, respectively. Granted, those were animated films, so their numbers are cushioned a bit by parents taking children, something Black has nothing to do with. Last year’s ‘Tropic Thunder’ had three stars working towards its box office take: Black, Ben Stiller, and Robert Downey, Jr. It opened to $25.8 million, and some of that credit has to go Black’s way.

‘Year One’ also has the added bonus of having Judd Apatow’s name attached to it. Granted, he produced ‘Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story,’ which had a poor opening at just over $4 million. Apatow just had a producing credit on that film, just as he does with ‘Year One,’ and ‘Walk Hard’ marked the first, instant bomb in Apatow’s court since 2004. Other than ‘Walk Hard,’ the man has had his name attached to so many hits, his name is literally a brand.

As for the other, three films in the top five, expect ‘The Hangover’ and ‘Up’ to continue strong. The impact each of those films made when they first landed is creating quite a wave for them to ride out. ‘Up’ only had a 35.2% drop in its second weekend, and the second weekend drop for ‘The Hangover’ was only 27.1%. Expect both films to continue raking in the dough over the coming weeks. With any luck, ‘Up’ will easily move past ‘Cars’ 2006 overall take of $244 million, which will make ‘Up’ PIXAR’s biggest film since 2004’s ‘The Incredibles.’

Here’s the way I see the weekend breaking down:

1. Year One – $29.4 million
2. The Proposal – $24.2 million
3. The Hangover – $22.5 million
4. Up – $21.5 million
5. The Taking of Pelham 123 – $12.2 million

Shoot us your numbers in the comments section below!