One Movie Geek’s Oscar Predictions 2K7

Hello and welcome to the 80th annual Academy Awards. Well, almost… probably.

Alright, assuming the WGA strike comes to a close, or at least maintains its agreement not to boycott the Oscars, we will soon be relishing in the red carpet coverage. Actually, who really cares about who’s dating who or who’s wearing what? And, if this is why you watch the Oscars, I am afraid you have the wrong website.

I think this year’s nominations are slightly more interesting than usual. The following  are a collection of  educated guesses made by a self-proclaimed movie geek about who has the best chances of winning. (I only covered the big ones in an attempt to keep this post from being too long.)

Category: Actor in a Leading Role

• George Clooney – Michael Clayton
• Daniel-Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
• Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
• Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
• Viggo Mortenson – Eastern Promises

I think this should easily go to Daniel Day-Lewis, as he is one of the best and most versatile working actors today, despite making very few films for the length of his career. This is actually an intentional approach by the actor, but that is a whole other story on its own. Depp, Clooney and Jones all have their recognizable names and careers to boot, but the Academy doesn’t seem to lean on that much. The long shot, but closest runner up in my opinion, is Viggo Mortenson. Is there a role this guy can’t handle?

Category: Actor in a Supporting Role

• Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
• Philip Seymor Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
• Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
• Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

This is a tough one to call. As mush as I love Hoffman, I thought he’s had a better chance with either Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and The Savages. Holbrook and Wilkinson, while good,  are extreme long shots. The real action is between Casey Affleck and Javier Bardem. Affleck was brilliant as the paranoid nervous wreck of a man destined to end Jesse James’ spotless reign of successful robberies. Bardem, on the other hand, was equally extraordinary as the emotionless, mentally off-kilter rogue assassin in No Country. For my money, I have to go with Bardem, considering the enormous amount of critical support that No Country has openly received.

Category: Actress in a Leading Role

• Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
• Julie Christie – Away From Her
• Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
• Laura Linney – The Savages
• Ellen Page – Juno

Between you and I, my heart lies with Cate Blanchett, but that’s not how things work around here. She was great as the powerful Queen, but it’s the second time she’s played the character, which means she’ll probably get little support for the Oscar nod. Laura Linney was great as Hoffman’s neurotic sister in Savages but  I think her chances are  way out in left field. As much as I thoroughly enjoyed Ellen Page and Juno, rarely do comedies ever get much attention from the comedy. No, the battle is between Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard. Once again, this is a tough choice. Christie gives such a truly sincere performance of a woman suffering from Alzheimer’s, while Cotillard is absolutely spectacular, giving a magnificent tour de force performance as the singer Edith Piaf. I believe all signs will ultimately lead to a little gold man for Cotillard.

Category: Actress in a Supporting Role

• Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
• Ruby Dee – American Gangster
• Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
• Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
• Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

This is where Blanchett may have a chance, but she’s got to beat the likely winner in Ronan, who is only assisted by the critic’s clear support of  Atonement. Ruby Dee is a possible, but unlikely upset. I personally don’t feel that Ryan and Swinton’s performances were unique enough to compete. I think this is an uneven two-way competition, favoring Saoirse Ronan as the winner.

Category: Animated Feature Film

• Persepolis
• Ratatouille
• Surf’s Up

Two words: Brad Bird. Clearly, Ratatouille will walk the familiar path up to the stage, unless by some odd act of improbability Persepolis pulls an astonishingly miraculous upset win out from under Bird’s masterful table setting. If so, it would be quite a change from the Academy’s trend away from technically superior CGI in favor of more artistic and politically minded fare. May the best cartoon win!

Category: Directing

• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Julian Schnabel
• Juno – Jason Reitman
• Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy
• No Country for Old Men – Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
• There Will Be Blood – Paul Thomas Anderson

Always my favorite category, this year we have a three dog heat. First, you have Schnabel and his Diving Bell, which is damn good! Schnabel’s work here appeals to both the traditional voting senses on the Academy yet also maintains a high level of creative experimentation. Then, you have Anderson’s Blood, which appeals mostly to the old school voters fancy, but is one powerhouse film featuring the triple crown of nominations in its corner: acting, cinematography and editing. Finally, you have the Coen brother’s No Country, which mostly appeals to the new school of voters, featuring the best of both worlds in the Coen universe: dark humor and masterful quirk. The Coen brothers are a favorite of many and that goes for me as well. No Country will take the gold.

Category: Best Picture

• Atonement
• Juno
• Michael Clayton
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

Ah… the biggie. The moment everyone waits for, through all the other categories and all the commercials and all the funny bits and talking. You see, the reason I am enjoying the Oscar bug so much this year is that there are a hadful of films that could really cleanup, but they’re mostly nominated in the same categories. This makes the anticipation thicker, thus making the Oscars more enjoyable. Here’s the breakdown: Michael Clayton is not going to win, but it’s actually the second to last least likely film to win. Unfortunately, Juno doesn’t have a chance. Keep in mind, I loved Juno, but historically speaking comedies don’t win best picture. The last comedy to win the best picture Oscar was Annie Hall in 1977, and that was a Woody Allen film (in case anyone reading this actually didn’t know that). If you were to poll a random generic sample of movie goers with the question “Who is Jason Reitman,” the results would look something like this:

• 99% — “Who?”
• 0.99% — “Wasn’t he the guy who made the Ghostbuster movies?” (The answer is “no.”)
• 0.01% — Other.

Additional Comments:

• The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford – As far as I’m concerned, this sure as Hell better win an Oscar for Achievement in Cinematography. This is one of the most beautifully shot films I’ve seen in years.
• Documentary Feature – It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Of the five nominees, four are related to the subject of war, three of which are related to the Iraq War, and the fifth is the latest docu-fiction-ary Sicko from Mike Moore.
• Foreign Language Film – Normally I’ve heard of at least 2-3 of the nominees. This year I haven’t heard of any. Not a good sign of the state of viewership here. I will make a point to try and see each of these this year.
• Visual Effects – I am surprised not to see 300 as a nominee. So, it’s clear Transformers will win this Oscar.
• Writing: Original Screenplay – Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think this is a first. Ratatouille is nominated for this Oscar. I cannot recall another animated film that’s been nominated for such an Oscar.