Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

With nomination morning looming, it’s time for our annual Oscar predictions on who will be invited to the party and who will be snubbed. So many wonderful, inspiring performances and films in 2010, but there are only 10 slots in the Best Picture category – even though it seems like 11 or even 12 are worthy of a spot. WAMG’s LA-based writer, Melissa Thompson, will be at the Academy to listen to the announcement of the nominations. After THE KING’S SPEECH upset over THE SOCIAL NETWORK at the Producer Guild Awards on Saturday night, she and I gave some careful consideration on what surprises may be in store tomorrow morning.

So without further adieu, here’s our predictions:

BEST PICTURE

• BLACK SWAN
• BLUE VALENTINE
• THE FIGHTER
• INCEPTION
• THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
• THE KING’S SPEECH
• THE SOCIAL NETWORK
• THE TOWN
• TRUE GRIT
• WINTER’S BONE

Watch out for: 127 HOURS (has it already peaked? – might be a no-show), TOY STORY 3 (doesn’t belong in the Best Picture category – AMPAS has the animated category for this), THE GHOST WRITER and THE WAY BACK

DIRECTOR

• Darren Aronofsky – BLACK SWAN
• David Fincher – THE SOCIAL NETWORK
• Tom Hooper – THE KING’S SPEECH
• David O’Russell – THE FIGHTER
• Christopher Nolan – INCEPTION

Watch out for: Danny Boyle – 127 HOURS, The Coen Brothers – TRUE GRIT, Mike Leigh – ANOTHER YEAR, Peter Weir – THE WAY BACK

ACTOR

• Jeff Bridges – TRUE GRIT
• Robert Duvall – GET LOW
• Jesse Eisenberg – THE SOCIAL NETWORK
• Colin Firth – THE KING’S SPEECH
• James Franco – 127 HOURS

Watch out for: Javier Bardem – BIUTIFUL, Mark Wahlberg – THE FIGHTER, Ryan Gosling – BLUE VALENTINE

SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Christian Bale – THE FIGHTER
• John Hawkes – WINTER’S BONE
• Jeremy Renner – THE TOWN
• Mark Ruffalo – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
• Geoffrey Rush – THE KING’S SPEECH

Watch our for: Matt Damon – TRUE GRIT, Michael Douglas – WALL STREET 2, Andrew Garfield – THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Pete Postlethwaite – THE TOWN

ACTRESS

• Annette Bening – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
• Nicole Kidman – RABBIT HOLE
• Jennifer Lawrence – WINTER’S BONE
• Natalie Portman – BLACK SWAN
• Michelle Williams – BLUE VALENTINE

Watch out for: Julianne Moore – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, Noomi Rapace – THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, Hilary Swank – CONVICTION, Hailee Steinfeld, TRUE GRIT (She could show up here as it’s more of a lead than supporting)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams – THE FIGHTER
• Helena Bonham Carter – THE KING’S SPEECH
• Melissa Leo – THE FIGHTER
• Lesley Manville – ANOTHER YEAR
• Hailee Steinfeld – TRUE GRIT

Watch out for: Barbara Hershey – BLACK SWAN, Mila Kunis – BLACK SWAN, Miranda Richardson – MADE IN DAGENHAM, Jacki Weaver – ANIMAL KINGDOM

ANIMATED

• HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
• THE ILLUSIONIST
• TOY STORY 3 (Please take note: THIS is the category that this movie belongs in – NOT BEST PICTURE).

Watch out for: TANGLED, DESPICABLE ME, MEGAMIND

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• ANOTHER YEAR
• BLACK SWAN
• INCEPTION
• THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
• THE KING’S SPEECH

Watch out for: THE FIGHTER, BLUE VALENTINE

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• 127 HOURS
• THE SOCIAL NETWORK
• TOY STORY 3
• TRUE GRIT
• WINTER’S BONE

Watch out for: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON, THE GHOST WRITER, THE TOWN

FOREIGN LANGUAGE

• BIUTIFUL – Mexico
• IN A BETTER WORLD, Denmark
• CONFESSIONS, Japan
• TAMBIEN LA LLUVIA, Spain
• SIMPLE SIMON, Sweden

Watch out for: DOGTOOTH – Greece, Incendies – Canada, LIFE, ABOVE ALL – Spain, OUTSIDE THE LAW – Algeria

Harrison will introduce several brief segments that celebrate the year in movies as well as the upcoming Oscar ceremony. Karger will join him in a discussion of movie trends from 2010 and how those trends might be reflected in the nominations.

Academy President Tom Sherak and last year’s Supporting Actress winner, Mo’Nique, will then take the stage in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater to reveal the nominees for 10 categories at 5:38:30am/pst. Immediately following the live announcement, Harrison and Karger will return to discuss interesting facts about the year’s nominees, Academy records that may have been broken, the movies receiving the most nominations and the races that look to be especially compelling. Additionally, they will be revealing a new piece of information about the Oscar telecast.

In February, “Road to the Oscars” will return exclusively on Oscar.com, the official website of the Academy Awards. Harrison will host the 10-episode series, with Karger offering insights about each of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture.