Posted by Kirk in Box Office, Studios | 4 comments
Is Lionsgate in Financial Trouble?
This past Tuesday investment bank Caris & Co downgraded shares in Lionsgate stock from “buy” to “above average”. Â The reasoning? Â The less than desirable opening for ‘The Spirit’, which pulled in only $10.4 million over the Christmas weekend. Â As of January 4th, it had made an estimated $17.7 million domestic.
This comes hot off the heels of another Lionsgate flop, ‘Punisher: War Zone’, which made $8.8 million worldwide, had an estimated budget of $35 million, and was pulled from theaters faster than ludicrous speed.
“Explanation for the weakness came primarily from a smattering of negative reviews, coupled with heavy competition from ‘Marley & Me’, which opened with a stellar $37.0 million in gross receipts,” Caris analyst David Miller said in a message to clients.
Miller went on to say that the future health of Lionsgate might well be tied to the release of ‘My Bloody Valentine 3D’ which opens on January 16th. Â
Lionsgate’s co-chief operating officer Joe Drake said in a New York Times interview about ‘My Bloody Valentine 3D’, “We see 3-D horror as financially lucrative and creatively exciting. We want to break some new ground here in R-rated fare.”
Lionsgate might be able to hold out until ‘Saw VI’, scheduled for release next October. Â Unfortunately, that franchise might be slipping financially, as ‘Saw V’ ended up being the worst performer in the series since the first one in 2004. Â Still, ‘Saw V’ made $103 millions worldwide off a $10.8 million budget.
What do you think? Â Is Lionsgate in financial trouble? Â Will ‘My Bloody Valentine 3D’ make as much as they expect? Â Is ludicrous speed really that fast? Â Let us know by commenting below!
Sources: IMDB Studio Briefing, NY Times
The saw series is going south and needs to be given up on. My Bloody Valentine I predict will hit similar as Hostel did in January of 2006.
This article is ridiculous on so many levels. For one, LGF distributes or puts out 18 wide releases a year, and typically another 3 to 4 now that are Mandate Pictures. LGF has plenty of financing to continue funding these slates for years and years to come. Over the next 5 years, LGF will likely put out over 100 movies when counting in Mandate. IS SOMEONE REALLY GOING TO LEGITMATELY SAY THAT THE SPIRIT AND THE PUNISHER IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SUCH A SERIOUS EFFECT ON THE VALUE OF A COMPANY WHEN OVER A 5 YEAR PERIOD THEY MAKE UP LESS THAN 2 PERCENT OF THE OUTPUT OF NEW MOVIES. And that doesn’t even factor the amount at which new releases play into the value of Lionsgate. Trading at these levels, the true value of Lionsgate is its library. With over 8,000 movies and 4,000 television shows, including a strong direct to dvd market that it plays too, each movie makes up a really small part of lionsgates value. Now, if LGF would make bomb after bomb after bomb, then their cash pile would fall apart eventually, and the quality of their library would diminish. BUT THIS IS NOT WHAT IS HAPPENING. LGF had a record year at the box office according the boxofficemojo. $434 million at the box office with 4.6% market share. This is the highest on record for LGF (AND THOSE NUMBERS DO NOT COUNT MANDATE’s JUNO, Harold and Kumar, Nick and Nora, 30 days of the night, The Strangers, etc.) LGF had a record year in video too, with year to date as of Sept. 28th, a 7.7% market share:
http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2540/2008...
Now, I haven’t even mentioned LGF’s flourishing and growing television business, which did $250 million in revenue last year, and is expected to double to $500 million in just a few short years.
It is laughable that any wall street analyst, or any commentator on the web would say that My Bloody Valentine holds LGF’s fate in its hands. First off, with this movies budget only $20 million, once all the ancillary and foreign money comes in, it will be pretty hard for this movie to not be profitable.
They had a disasterous Christmas. Not only The Spirit but Punisher Warzone did miserable.
los productores de lionsgate solo hacen peliculas feas cambien