Discuss: ‘Twilight.’ How much is it going to make?

I wonder. I really do. I mean, damn, this film is carrying a lot of hype. A lot. And in a year where Warner Bros. saw a franchise rake in a staggering sum of money, well, you have to wonder…

How much money is ‘Twilight’ going to make? Anyone care to take a shot in the dark?

Let’s look at similar films and see just how much they made. To keep things on the conservative end, lets focus on domestic figures. I picked up the following estimates from boxofficemojo.com:

‘Underworld’ finished with a domestic gross of  $51,970,690.

‘Interview With The Vampire’ bowed out at  $105,264,608.

‘Harry Potter’ made a staggering  $317,575,550.

So, the latest book in the vampire series, ‘Breaking Dawn,’ sold 1.3 million copies in the first 24 hours of its release.

Okay, not bad. Let’s continue…

The National Association of Theatre Owners estimate that average U.S. ticket prices are at $6.88. I think this is probably a bit on the low scale but that’s another argument for another time. I do, however, plan on rounding that up to $7.

Now I’m going to take that 1.3 million and times that by $7.

So an opening day figure for the film might be around $9,100,000. That’s kind of “meh,” yeah? What did I forget? Why isn’t that number bigger? Hmm… parents!

Let’s assume that their will be many mom and pop combos in attendance. Once again I will just be making an estimate but let’s say half of that 1.3 million will be accompanied by the ‘rents. That jacks up attendance by another 1,300,000 Â  which brings us to a total of 2,600,000 ticket buyers. Now, times that by $7.

$18,200,000.

That’s a much more generous opening day, don’t you think? What about the rest of that weekend? I imagine there will be some repeat viewings, though the second time will be sans parental units, and this seems to be a pretty rabid group of fans. I think a safe estimate is that 45% of the original 1.3 million book buyers will see this a second time during the opening weekend. That’s 585,000 more tickets at a $7 average, which would generate another $4,095,000 .

How about Saturday? I imagine that it will perform much in the same way as the ‘Harry Potter’ films and up its take by at least a million, then drop about two million on Sunday.

That would be an opening weekend of $58,695,000. Not too shabby. By my estimate, ‘Twilight’ will beat the domestic gross of ‘Underworld’ in its first weekend. Hell, the production budget for ‘Twilight’ is only $37 million, so it would already be a big earner for Summit.

The real question becomes: Will it be any damn good? If it satisfies the fans, then it could see big return numbers in its second and third weekend. I suspect ‘Twilight’ to crest $100 million for sure but I think it will slow down after that.

Enough deliberating. I’ll take my shot in the dark.

$140,000,000 domestic gross.

Anyone?